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LED Chip Industry Status: Strong Demand And Rich Gross Profit

- Dec 14, 2017 -

    LED permeability enhancement, supply and demand improvement to promote industry high scenery: LED performance is excellent, compared with other light sources have obvious advantages. In recent years, the efficiency of LED chip has been greatly improved, and the price has decreased significantly, which has greatly promoted the improvement of LED penetration. In the past 16 years, the penetration of global LED lighting has been close to 30%, and it is expected to exceed 60% in 2020. The LED high boom of the industry by production and price freeze EPISTAR caused, industry oversupply pattern is broken. Domestic manufacturers to expand production of high-end production capacity expansion is expected in 2017, Sanan optoelectronics 33%, HC semitek will expand production more than doubled. The growth of downstream demand and the transfer of overseas orders are the two ways to digest new capacity. According to the calculation, with the clearance of low-end equipment, we expect that the supply gap will continue to exist from 2017 to 2019.

芯片环节是产业链高毛利环节,未来盈利能力有望持续:LED芯片领域是LED产业链的高毛利环节,行业平均毛利率较高,未来高盈利能力大概率将持续:1)行业历经洗牌后,低端产能被淘汰,国内大厂大规模扩产高端产能,抢占市场份额,行业走向寡头垄断的局面,17年末三安和华灿在国内的市占率有望提升至40%和30%,大厂具备的资金、技术和规模优势将加宽护城河。2)上游MOCVD设备环节,国内厂商如中微半导体和中晟光电已逐渐打破国外垄断格局,2016年两家在国内的市占率已超过10%,国产化有望推动设备成本降低。3)芯片大厂向上游整合,三安和华灿的衬底蓝宝石材料都具备自产能力,原材料自产进一步提高盈利能力。

   The chip is part of the high margin industry chain, future profitability is expected to continue: LED chips are high margin part of the LED industry chain, the industry average gross margin is higher, the probability of future high profitability will continue: 1) after the industry reshuffle, the low-end production can be eliminated, the domestic manufacturers of large-scale expansion of high-end production capacity, to seize the market share, industry to oligopoly, at the end of 17 and three Huacan in the domestic market share is expected to increase to 40% and 30%, with capital, technology and large scale advantages will be widening the moat. 2) upstream MOCVD equipment links. Domestic manufacturers such as Zhongwei semiconductor and Zhongsheng photoelectric have gradually broken the monopoly of foreign countries. In 2016, two cities in China accounted for over 10% of the total market share. Localization is expected to drive equipment costs down. 3) upstream chip manufacturers, three Huacan and substrate sapphire material have production capacity, raw material production to further improve profitability.

技术推动行业成长,Micro LED是未来发展趋势:技术发展将主导行业的未来走向,具备技术实力的厂商将从竞争中脱颖而出。一方面,技术的进步可以降低成本,提高LED在现有应用领域如照明领域的渗透率,另一方面,技术的进步可以开拓新应用,如Micro LED可应用于显示领域,有望促进LED芯片需求量的提升。根据测算,当Micro-LED在消费电子终端年出货渗透率达到50%时,按照折合每片2寸片200元的价格计算,Micro-LED芯片市场规模将达到3800亿元,远超过现有的450亿元,市场发展空间巨大。

   Technology promotes the growth of the industry. Micro LED is the trend of future development: technology development will lead the future of the industry, and the manufacturers with strong technical strength will stand out from the competition. On the one hand, the progress of technology can reduce costs, improve the penetration of LED in existing applications, such as lighting. On the other hand, technological progress can open up new applications, such as Micro LED, which can be applied to display area, and is expected to enhance the demand of LED chips. According to the calculation, when the penetration rate of Micro-LED reaches 50% at the end of the consumer electronics terminal, according to the calculation of the price of 200 yuan per slice, the Micro-LED chip market will reach 380 billion yuan, far exceeding the existing 45 billion yuan, and the market development space is huge.